Big Blockbuster Balance

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Big blockbusters in modern Hollywood are both a blessing and a curse. 2026 is setting up to finally give us, the audience, a balance between the two.

As the MCU rocketed to success over the 2010’s, the blockbuster formula Spielberg created with Jaws began to be molded and twisted into something new. We began to see budgets inflate as studios went for huge, billion-dollar grosses.

So, while box office totals ballooned (see 2018 just missing 12 billion dollars, an all-time record), the facade of Hollywood began to show cracks.

The MCU was nearing completion of the Infinity Saga, closing out 11 years of storytelling with one epic conclusion. Television was ascending to the “prestige” level.

More than anything, demographics of audiences began to skew older as younger people began seeking entertainment through other mediums. This piece of the larger will also come full circle as Curry Barker and Kane Parsons ascend from YouTube success to direct two of the biggest hits of the year.

Then a global pandemic hit, audiences began staying home and streaming, and as a mass, we lost sight of what makes going to the movies a critical societal totem.

Since 2020, we have seen the MCU falter and stumble, PIXAR miss more than they hit, and what once was thought of as a surefire hit, became bloated messes and “flops”.

Between 2020 and 2022, studios including Pixar, Warner Bros., and Universal sent movies directly to streaming, or releasing them “day and date” with a theatrical release.

Tom Cruise, Joseph Kosinski and Top Gun: Maverick in 2022 welcomed us back to cinemas.

In 2023, the July 21st double release of Barbie and Oppenheimer became a pop culture phenomenon (see, Barbenheimer).

Still though, the stories remained part of a dated strategy. Smaller, niche genre titles remained relegated to streaming services or, worse yet, a confidence shattering 30-day theatrical window before heading to Premium Video on Demand (PVOD).

In 2024, the top 9 grossing films were all either a sequel, a legacy sequel, or were already established intellectual property (IP) we have seen on screen. Only once we get to the 21st highest grossing movie, the swelteringly average IF, do we see an original story on the list.

In 2025, the tide begins to turn. Sinners and Weapons burned terrifyingly large holes in the zeitgeist and finish at number 7 and 16 respectively. We saw a darker entry from the MCU with Thunderbolts*, and A Minecraft Movie welcomes in a whole new generation of film goer to the theater. “Chicken Jockey” and being a part of something catapults the Jack Black vehicle to finish at #1.

A Minecraft Movie is ot a comic book movie, a Disney tale, or a sequel to established property at the top of the box office. A movie that knew what they had was special but underestimated the demand from Generation Z for what we all wanted: to see something different, and to see something good.

2026 presents the biggest test of the dam. Will the film landscape continue with the model of “big budget plus big advertising equal people will show up regardless of quality” or moving forward, will we start to see more daring choices.

So far, there is hope.

As of writing, six total titles are sitting in the top 20 that are original stories or never before seen adaptations: Project Hail Mary (4), Obsession (5), Backrooms (7), Hoppers (9), Disclosure Day (13), and GOAT (15).

Halfway through the year, and we are 300% above 2025’s total of films in the top 20 that are original.

This does not include The Odyssey, which as a film has never been its own story (at best an inspiration for Ulysses (1954) and multiple Trojan War films).

Studios are banking on genre film making. Obsession and Backrooms (two original stories from new voices) have outgrossed previous stalwarts such as Star Wars, Minions, Mortal Kombat, and DC Comics.

In the second half of the year, as we enter awards season and pivot towards more reflective filmmaking, we still have tremendous titles heading our way. Huge releases like Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Dune: Part Three, and Avengers: Doomsday, will anchor the box office.

Outside of those marquee conquerors, there is a swath of smaller films that will drive conversation and positive word of mouth like Wild Horse Nine, Resident Evil, Werwulf, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, and The End of Oak Street.

Confidence is high, and studios are committing to longer theatrical windows. Movies are becoming a true talking point once again; an opportunity for people to come together in the dark and discuss the story in the light.

Couldn’t we all use that a little more? 

So, please choose your seat. The show is about to start.

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